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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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