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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd